From: India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) notes an
infrastructure funding gap of about $26 trillion in Asia (ADB,
2017). Within this, the ‘state of disconnect’ among the
countries is stark where notions of ‘geostrategic divergence, political
nationalism and economic protectionism’ have hindered regional integration (Xavier,
2020). To address these, various trans-/sub-regional
projects have been initiated on the connectivity front, of which the focus of
this article is on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Nepal. The BRI itself
exhibits a paradoxical attribute. On the one hand, the project is unified by
its philosophical-ideological underpinnings, whereby China takes its rightful
place among the globally significant pantheon of nations—possibly even usurping
a few. On the other hand, the implementation of the project in terms of its
global reach is ambiguous and differentiated.
The BRI is
crucial because it is seen as the ‘most significant contribution’ to the needs
of Asia’s infrastructure financing (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
[OECD], 2018, p.
7). Framed as an ‘economic pie’ by the Chinese, for Nepal, BRI is an attempt to
‘have the pie and eat it too’. On the face of it, Nepal’s expectation to
address the tensions in Sino-India relations seems to develop a polyamorous one
involving a trilateral solution whereby both China and India ideally would
consent to Nepal’s agency in its bi/multilateral relations.
While it is too
early to have a conclusive view of the actual effects of BRI in Nepal, it is
also important to note that the consequences of BRI are not uniform. There are
some projects in Nepal (post-reconstruction) that have performed better than
others (connectivity), which is why it is necessary to understand the impact of
the individual projects while not losing sight of the broad objectives of BRI.
In the short term, however, BRI projects in Nepal have failed to make much
headway. Nepali officials have insisted more on ‘grant assistance’ rather than
‘loans’ and even if loans are offered by the Chinese, these, argue the Nepali
officials, must be in the form of a ‘soft loan’ or ‘concessional loan’ with an
interest rate of less than 2% along with repayment options in line with the norms
of the World Bank or the ADB. Perhaps, this is the reason why Nepal finally
ratified the US-backed Millennium Challenge Corporation Nepal Compact
(originally signed in September 2017) with an ‘interpretative declaration’ in
February 2022, with China declaring the Compact as ‘coercive diplomacy’ and
‘Pandora’s Box’. The Compact, which is pegged at $500 million, ‘aims to
maintain road quality, increase the availability and reliability of
electricity, and facilitate cross-border electricity trade between Nepal and
India—helping to spur investments, accelerate economic growth, and reduce
poverty’.15 Due to the constraints in the implementation of the BRI in Nepal,
China is now observed to attempt to place the BRI framework in the backburner
and to focus more on agreements on other areas of cooperation. This was
precisely what occurred against the backdrop of the visit of the Chinese
foreign minister in February 2022 to Nepal when nine ‘documents’ were signed. This
means that Nepal is invariably pulled into the larger geostrategic and
geopolitical ‘game’ in the subcontinent, despite its attempts to break free
from the same.
While this
point of view is necessary to analyse the recent developments, it is not
sufficient to gauge the larger implications of BRI. Apart from ‘hard’
infrastructure and connectivity, ‘soft’ interventions of BRI have not received
the same attention that relate mostly to cultural and educational spheres. With
the problems in delineating BRI membership, it is important to note that even
in cases where formal/official participation is declined (such as India), there
are projects that are being carried out which are partly funded by institutions
under the aegis of BRI such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).16 This feature needs to be recognised by
further studies. Similarly, the trilateral intersections among
Nepal–China–India cannot be seen as solely bounded by the circumstances and
conditions of the bilateral Sino-India, Nepal–China, or India–Nepal relations.
This article explores contemporary issues of
(under)development in Nepal, which forms the backdrop for a larger discussion
on Nepal–China relations. The second section briefly understands BRI through
its historical significance and contemporary manifestations, and the third
section discusses prominent aspects of contemporary Nepal–China relations,
examining certain BRI projects in Nepal. The final section concludes by noting
that apart from its core philosophical-ideological premises, BRI projects
cannot be examined as a monolith and that there is a great degree of
differentiation and diversification in the projects. Therefore, while the
evaluation of BRI projects certainly needs a nuanced understanding, taking into
account the bilateral relations, any meaningful examination must also attempt
to move beyond it.
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ReplyDeleteThis blog post provides a fascinating perspective on the evolving relationship between Nepal and China within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. It's encouraging to see discussions that delve into geopolitical dynamics and their potential impact on regional development. The depth of analysis and insights presented here is commendable, shedding light on a complex yet crucial aspect of international relations. Looking forward to more thought-provoking content from this platform!
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