-Journal of Developing Societies
Since the late 1980s
governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) have created commercial
institutions to promote regional economic integration. The primary aim of this
policy has been regarded as the promotion of economic welfare gains at the national
level. The second, less-emphasized goal, has been to promote regional peace
through economic interdependence. This study examines the prospects for a
liberal peace in the MENA by analyzing two stages of the commercial
institutional peace.
Understanding how to
promote peace in the region is perhaps more pressing now than at any time in
the post-Cold War era. The region faces a myriad of security challenges
including the rise of extremism, proxy wars at the regional level, and the
negative effects of climate change
This work considers
the prospects for a liberal peace in the MENA by analyzing two separate but
interconnected stages of the CIP. This study tests the validity of the CIP
theory in the context of the MENA and investigates if trade influences peace
and security in interstate relations in the region.
Analyzing the
relationship between commercial institutions and peace/conflict is complex and
various methodological approaches have been used to this end. The multiplicity
of methodologies exists in part because no single approach has proven
sufficient to explain this contested area of investigation.
This article
examines the relationship among commercial institutions, trade, and peace among
20 states in the MENA and a total of 380 dyads. Data were collected from 12
variables that provide us with evidence of the nature of economic and political
interactions in the region (the variables and sources of data are discussed in
the following). These data were then processed using SPSS to ascertain the level
of correlation between the variables by conducting bivariate correlate analysis
using Pearson R to test for multivariable correlation by
dyad-year. The first stage explored the relationship between commercial
institutions and trade volume. The second stage explored the relationship
between trade and peace.
Commercial
institutions formed by states in the region do have a pacifying effect,
reducing the likelihood of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). and thus,
promoting peace in the region. This effect arises not only from commercial
institutions promoting trade, but also through the engagement with commercial
institutions themselves—perhaps through a functional spillover effect.
In conclusion, the
first hypothesis tested in this study (that commercial institutions in the MENA
promote trade within the region) has been proven to be correct, but with the
caveat that this impact is limited. The second hypothesis tested (that higher
levels of bilateral trade promote peace by deterring aggression) has also been
proven to be correct, but again the effect is limited. While this study
demonstrates that there are policy implications for current and future
political leaders in the MENA and elsewhere, to encourage peace in the MENA
through reducing MIDs by promoting commercial institutions and economic
integration, it also raises some questions that should be pursued in future
research.
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